Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Sur to win @ 2.65 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSur to win ✗41% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.61
Smail vs Sur preview and prediction
The match
The Professional League sees Smail take on Sur on Friday 6 March, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT). Smail are 11th with 6 points from 6 games (in the bottom half), while Sur sit 12th on 6 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Smail and 1.3 for Sur. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Smail 33%, draw 25%, Sur 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Sur to win at 2.65 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Smail 1–1 Sur. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Smail33%fair 3.00 · @2.60
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @2.95
Sur41%fair 2.43 · @2.65
2.40Expected goals
1.12Smail xG
1.28Sur xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Smail 1.1 – 1.3 Sur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sur to win✗
41%
2.43
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sur / FT Sur✗
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.61
–
Form
Smail – last 1
W
22 Feb
@ Saham
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Sur – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Bahla
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Al Nasr
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Smail and Sur.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Smail vs Sur?
On our numbers Smail have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sur 41%.
How many goals will there be in Smail vs Sur?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Smail vs Sur?
Our predicted score is Smail 1–1 Sur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Smail vs Sur?
Smail vs Sur (Professional League) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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