Value bet: Naftan to win @ 2.90 – our chance 42% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNaftan to win ✗42% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.85
Arsenal vs Naftan preview and prediction
The match
Arsenal host Naftan in the Premier League on Friday 3 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Haradski Stadium. Arsenal are 12th with 27 points from 28 games (in the bottom half), while Naftan sit 16th on 17 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Arsenal's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with FC Minsk 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Naftan's last 3: DDD Most recently they drew with FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Naftan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.0 goals: 0.4 for Arsenal and 0.6 for Naftan. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal 34%, draw 24%, Naftan 42%.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Naftan to win at 2.90 – 42% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Arsenal 0–0 Naftan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal34%fair 2.95 · @2.40
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.75
Naftan42%fair 2.38 · @2.90
1.00Expected goals
0.44Arsenal xG
0.56Naftan xG
43%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–037%
0–121%
1–016%
1–19%
0–26%
2–04%
From our goals model: Arsenal 0.4 – 0.6 Naftan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naftan to win✗
42%
2.38
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
68%
1.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
21%
4.85
–
Form
Arsenal – last 3
DLL
20 Mar
@ FC Minsk
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Slavia Mozyr
0–2
L
8 Mar
@ Slavia Mozyr
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Naftan – last 3
DDD
22 Mar
vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
0–0
D
7 Mar
vs FC Vitebsk
1–1
D
18 Feb
@ Dinamo Minsk
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal and Naftan.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Arsenal vs Naftan?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Naftan 42%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Naftan?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Naftan?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 0–0 Naftan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs Naftan?
Arsenal vs Naftan (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Haradski Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
