Value bet: ES Metlaoui to win @ 3.85 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUS Ben Guerdane to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.76
US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui preview and prediction
The match
ES Metlaoui travel to 7 March Stadium in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 5 April (14:30 WAT) to face US Ben Guerdane. US Ben Guerdane are 1st with 17 points from 7 games (top of the table), while ES Metlaoui sit 12th on 6 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
US Ben Guerdane's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to M'saken 1–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
ES Metlaoui's last 4: DDLD Most recently they drew with AS Gabes 2–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
ES Metlaoui arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.0 for US Ben Guerdane and 0.8 for ES Metlaoui. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: US Ben Guerdane 45%, draw 24%, ES Metlaoui 31%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.48.
Value angle: ES Metlaoui to win at 3.85 – 31% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: US Ben Guerdane 0–0 ES Metlaoui. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
US Ben Guerdane45%fair 2.24 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.80
ES Metlaoui31%fair 3.20 · @3.85
1.75Expected goals
0.99US Ben Guerdane xG
0.75ES Metlaoui xG
46%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–017%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: US Ben Guerdane 1.0 – 0.8 ES Metlaoui expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
US Ben Guerdane to win✗
45%
2.24
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
25%
3.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.76
–
Form
US Ben Guerdane – last 4
LLLL
22 Mar
@ M'saken
1–4
L
8 Mar
vs Club Africain
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs CS Sfaxien
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
ES Metlaoui – last 4
DDLD
22 Mar
vs AS Gabes
2–2
D
7 Mar
vs Olympique Béja
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Club Africain
0–5
L
25 Feb
vs ES Tunis
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between US Ben Guerdane and ES Metlaoui.
What is the prediction for US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
On our numbers US Ben Guerdane have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and ES Metlaoui 31%.
How many goals will there be in US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
Our predicted score is US Ben Guerdane 0–0 ES Metlaoui, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at 7 March Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
AS Gabes0