Russia vs Mali prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.20
Value bet: Russia to win @ 1.71 – our chance 66% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Russia 1.8 – 0.6 Mali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Russia are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 11% for Mali.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.8 for Russia, 0.6 for Mali). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (15%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.30. For a bigger price, Russia to win at 1.71 is our value angle (66% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Russia to win | 66% | 1.51 | 1.71 ▲ |
| Double chance | Russia or draw | 89% | 1.12 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 51% | 1.98 | 2.03 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | 1.66 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Russia ahead at half-time | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Russia / FT Russia | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 16% | 6.13 | – |
Form
Russia
No recent results on record.
Mali
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Russia and Mali.
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Egypt4Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Russia vs Mali?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Russia vs Mali?
On our numbers Russia have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mali 11%.
How many goals will there be in Russia vs Mali?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Russia vs Mali?
Russia vs Mali (Friendlies) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.