Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv Plovdiv to win ✗41% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.38
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali preview and prediction
The match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv host Arda Kardzhali in the Cup on Thursday 30 April, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Form guide
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Cherno More Varna 0–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arda Kardzhali's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–4 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 April 2026, finished Arda Kardzhali 0–4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.3 for Arda Kardzhali. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.41, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Arda Kardzhali. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lokomotiv Plovdiv41%fair 2.42 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.20
Arda Kardzhali35%fair 2.88 · @2.45
2.83Expected goals
1.49Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
1.34Arda Kardzhali xG
59%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.5 – 1.3 Arda Kardzhali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arda Kardzhali 35%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Arda Kardzhali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali (Cup) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
