Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
O3.5
Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHouston FC to win ✓67% · @1.53
Double chanceEither team to win ✓89% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.61
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗63% · @1.70
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗7% · fair 15.08
Houston Sur vs Houston FC preview and prediction
The match
Houston Sur host Houston FC in the USL League Two on Saturday 20 June, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Houston Sur's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to GFI 3–8 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 3.8 conceded.
Houston FC's last 4: LLWD Most recently they lost to San Antonio FC 2 0–3 away. They average 1.8 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Houston FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.0 goals: 1.8 for Houston Sur and 3.2 for Houston FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Houston Sur 21%, draw 11%, Houston FC 67%.
Value angle: Over 3.5 goals at 1.70 – 63% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Houston FC to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Houston Sur 1–3 Houston FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Houston Sur21%fair 4.74 · @4.20
Draw11%fair 8.74 · @4.40
Houston FC67%fair 1.48 · @1.53
5.00Expected goals
1.80Houston Sur xG
3.20Houston FC xG
62%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–37%
1–26%
2–36%
2–26%
1–45%
2–45%
From our goals model: Houston Sur 1.8 – 3.2 Houston FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Houston FC to win✓
67%
1.48
1.53
Double chance
Either team to win✓
89%
1.13
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.70 ▲
Half-time result
Houston FC ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Houston FC / FT Houston FC✓
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–3✗
7%
15.08
–
Form
Houston Sur – last 5
LLLDL
17 Jun
vs GFI
3–8
L
14 Jun
@ Lonestar
1–2
L
7 Jun
@ Laredo Heat
0–3
L
4 Jun
@ AHFC Royals
2–2
D
31 May
vs Brazos Valley
2–4
L
1.6Scored / game
3.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Houston FC – last 4
LLWD
14 Jun
@ San Antonio FC 2
0–3
L
11 Jun
vs GFI
3–6
L
6 Jun
@ Brazos Valley
3–2
W
14 May
vs AHFC Royals
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Houston Sur and Houston FC.
What is the prediction for Houston Sur vs Houston FC?
Our pick is Houston FC to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Houston Sur vs Houston FC?
On our numbers Houston Sur have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Houston FC 67%.
How many goals will there be in Houston Sur vs Houston FC?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Houston Sur vs Houston FC?
Our predicted score is Houston Sur 1–3 Houston FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Houston Sur vs Houston FC?
Houston Sur vs Houston FC (USL League Two) kicks off on Saturday 20 June 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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