Value bet: Moreton City Excelsior to win @ 2.80 – our chance 38% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLions to win ✓41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗69% · @1.33
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.55
Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior preview and prediction
The match
Moreton City Excelsior travel to face Lions in the Queensland NPL on Saturday 9 May (10:30 WAT).
Form guide
Lions's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Peninsula Power 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Moreton City Excelsior's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Brisbane Roar II 6–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.8 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Moreton City Excelsior arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.9 for Lions and 1.8 for Moreton City Excelsior. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score in 69% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lions 41%, draw 21%, Moreton City Excelsior 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.33.
Value angle: Moreton City Excelsior to win at 2.80 – 38% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Lions 2–1 Moreton City Excelsior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lions41%fair 2.44 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.80
Moreton City Excelsior38%fair 2.63 · @2.80
3.71Expected goals
1.89Lions xG
1.82Moreton City Excelsior xG
69%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–18%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Lions 1.9 – 1.8 Moreton City Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lions to win✓
41%
2.44
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.77
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lions / FT Lions✓
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.55
–
Form
Lions – last 6
LWWDWW
25 Apr
@ Peninsula Power
2–3
L
19 Apr
vs Gold Coast United
1–0
W
10 Apr
@ WDSC Wolves
5–0
W
28 Mar
vs Brisbane City
2–2
D
22 Mar
vs Magic United
4–0
W
14 Mar
@ Eastern Suburbs
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Moreton City Excelsior – last 6
WWWWWW
25 Apr
vs Brisbane Roar II
6–0
W
18 Apr
@ Peninsula Power
4–1
W
11 Apr
vs Gold Coast United
2–1
W
7 Apr
@ Magic United
5–0
W
28 Mar
vs Eastern Suburbs
3–0
W
21 Mar
vs Rochedale Rovers
3–1
W
3.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lions and Moreton City Excelsior.
What is the prediction for Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
On our numbers Lions have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Moreton City Excelsior 38%.
How many goals will there be in Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Lions 2–1 Moreton City Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Queensland NPL · Australia
