Double chanceMoreton City Excelsior or draw ✓84% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.42
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.20
Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast United preview and prediction
The match
Moreton City Excelsior host Gold Coast United in the Queensland NPL on Saturday 11 April, with kick-off at 10:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Moreton City Excelsior's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Magic United 5–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Gold Coast United's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with WDSC Wolves 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 6. They average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Moreton City Excelsior arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.6 for Moreton City Excelsior and 1.2 for Gold Coast United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Moreton City Excelsior 68%, draw 17%, Gold Coast United 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.42.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Moreton City Excelsior 2–1 Gold Coast United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Moreton City Excelsior68%fair 1.48 · @1.33
Draw17%fair 5.99 · @5.10
Gold Coast United16%fair 6.34 · @6.60
3.88Expected goals
2.64Moreton City Excelsior xG
1.23Gold Coast United xG
68%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
1–17%
3–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: Moreton City Excelsior 2.6 – 1.2 Gold Coast United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Moreton City Excelsior to win✓
68%
1.48
1.33
Double chance
Moreton City Excelsior or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Half-time result
Moreton City Excelsior ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Moreton City Excelsior / FT Moreton City Excelsior✗
45%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.20
–
Form
Moreton City Excelsior – last 6
WWWLLW
7 Apr
@ Magic United
5–0
W
28 Mar
vs Eastern Suburbs
3–0
W
21 Mar
vs Rochedale Rovers
3–1
W
6 Mar
@ WDSC Wolves
0–3
L
28 Feb
@ Brisbane City
1–2
L
20 Feb
vs Gold Coast Knights
4–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Gold Coast United – last 6
DLLWWL
7 Apr
@ WDSC Wolves
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Peninsula Power
2–4
L
15 Mar
@ Olympic
0–2
L
8 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar II
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Rochedale Rovers
4–3
W
21 Feb
@ Magic United
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moreton City Excelsior and Gold Coast United.
What is the prediction for Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast United?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast United?
On our numbers Moreton City Excelsior have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Gold Coast United 16%.
How many goals will there be in Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast United?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast United?
Our predicted score is Moreton City Excelsior 2–1 Gold Coast United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast United?
Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast United (Queensland NPL) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 10:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Queensland NPL · Australia
Olympic1
Eastern Suburbs2