Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Burreli to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultApolonia Fier to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.76
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.50
Apolonia Fier vs Burreli preview and prediction
The match
Apolonia Fier host Burreli in the 1st Division on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadiumi Loni Papuciu.
Form guide
Apolonia Fier's last 4: LDLL Most recently they lost to Besa Kavajë 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Burreli's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Luftëtari 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Apolonia Fier and 1.0 for Burreli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 43%.
Value angle: Burreli to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 60% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Apolonia Fier 1–0 Burreli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Apolonia Fier44%fair 2.26 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.10
Burreli34%fair 2.97 · @3.20
2.20Expected goals
1.21Apolonia Fier xG
1.00Burreli xG
43%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Apolonia Fier 1.2 – 1.0 Burreli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Apolonia Fier to win✗
44%
2.26
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Apolonia Fier / FT Apolonia Fier✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.50
–
Form
Apolonia Fier – last 4
LDLL
19 Apr
vs Besa Kavajë
1–2
L
18 Mar
@ Luftëtari
2–2
D
28 Feb
vs Pogradeci
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Kastrioti Krujë
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Burreli – last 6
LLLLDL
19 Apr
@ Luftëtari
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Pogradeci
0–3
L
18 Mar
@ Kastrioti Krujë
2–5
L
1 Mar
@ Besa Kavajë
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Korabi Peshkopi
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Pogradeci
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Apolonia Fier and Burreli.
What is the prediction for Apolonia Fier vs Burreli?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Apolonia Fier vs Burreli?
On our numbers Apolonia Fier have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burreli 34%.
How many goals will there be in Apolonia Fier vs Burreli?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Apolonia Fier vs Burreli?
Our predicted score is Apolonia Fier 1–0 Burreli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Apolonia Fier vs Burreli?
Apolonia Fier vs Burreli (1st Division) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadiumi Loni Papuciu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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