Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction & analysis
87%
Footrivo pick
Kauno Žalgiris or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.21 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.21Odds
2
Value bet: Kauno Žalgiris to win @ 1.88 – our chance 62% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKauno Žalgiris to win ✗62% · @1.88
Double chanceKauno Žalgiris or draw ✗87% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.41
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris preview and prediction
The match
Suduva Marijampole host Kauno Žalgiris in the A Lyga on Saturday 23 May, with kick-off at 12:15 (WAT) at Marijampole Football Arena. Suduva Marijampole are 2nd with 56 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Kauno Žalgiris sit 1st on 58 points (top of the table). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Suduva Marijampole's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Kauno Žalgiris's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat FK Trakai 4–0 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kauno Žalgiris arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Suduva Marijampole and 1.9 for Kauno Žalgiris. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Suduva Marijampole 13%, draw 26%, Kauno Žalgiris 62%.
Safer route: Kauno Žalgiris or draw (87%) at 1.21.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Kauno Žalgiris to win at 1.88 – 62% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Kauno Žalgiris or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.21, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Suduva Marijampole13%fair 7.78 · @3.50
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.38
Kauno Žalgiris62%fair 1.62 · @1.88
2.62Expected goals
0.76Suduva Marijampole xG
1.86Kauno Žalgiris xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Suduva Marijampole 0.8 – 1.9 Kauno Žalgiris expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kauno Žalgiris to win✗
62%
1.62
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Kauno Žalgiris or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.21 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.81
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.27
Half-time result
Kauno Žalgiris ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kauno Žalgiris / FT Kauno Žalgiris✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.41
–
Form
Suduva Marijampole – last 6
DDWWLW
10 May
vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1–1
D
6 May
@ TransINVEST Vilnius
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Džiugas Telšiai
3–2
W
3 Apr
vs FK Trakai
5–0
W
10 Mar
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0–1
L
7 Mar
vs TransINVEST Vilnius
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kauno Žalgiris – last 6
WDDWWW
19 May
@ FK Trakai
4–0
W
5 May
vs Džiugas Telšiai
2–2
D
1 May
@ Banga
2–2
D
28 Apr
@ Sveikata
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Šiauliai
5–0
W
3.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris.
What is the prediction for Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our pick is Kauno Žalgiris or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
On our numbers Suduva Marijampole have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Kauno Žalgiris 62%.
How many goals will there be in Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our predicted score is Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 12:15 (West Africa Time) at Marijampole Football Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
