Value bet: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win @ 1.70 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Zalgiris Vilnius to win ✗64% · @1.70
Double chanceFK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw ✗87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.85
Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius preview and prediction
The match
The A Lyga sees Panevėžys take on FK Zalgiris Vilnius on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 12:15 (WAT) at Aukstaitijos Stadium. Panevėžys are 7th with 38 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while FK Zalgiris Vilnius sit 3rd on 54 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Panevėžys's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Radviliškis 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat Džiugas Telšiai 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Panevėžys arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–1 Panevėžys.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Panevėžys and 1.8 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Panevėžys 13%, draw 23%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 64%.
Safer route: FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw (87%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.77.
Value angle: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win at 1.70 – 64% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Panevėžys 0–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Panevėžys13%fair 8.00 · @4.20
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.55
FK Zalgiris Vilnius64%fair 1.56 · @1.70
2.54Expected goals
0.69Panevėžys xG
1.85FK Zalgiris Vilnius xG
54%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–08%
From our goals model: Panevėžys 0.7 – 1.8 FK Zalgiris Vilnius expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
On our numbers Panevėžys have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FK Zalgiris Vilnius 64%.
How many goals will there be in Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Our predicted score is Panevėžys 0–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:15 (West Africa Time) at Aukstaitijos Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
