Value bet: Džiugas Telšiai to win @ 3.80 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSuduva Marijampole to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.76
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai preview and prediction
The match
Suduva Marijampole host Džiugas Telšiai in the A Lyga on Sunday 19 April, with kick-off at 12:15 (WAT) at Marijampole Football Arena. Suduva Marijampole are 2nd with 56 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Džiugas Telšiai sit 6th on 42 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Suduva Marijampole's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat FK Trakai 5–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Džiugas Telšiai's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Panevėžys 1–0 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Suduva Marijampole and 0.8 for Džiugas Telšiai. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely.
Value angle: Džiugas Telšiai to win at 3.80 – 31% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Suduva Marijampole 0–0 Džiugas Telšiai. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Suduva Marijampole45%fair 2.22 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @2.90
Džiugas Telšiai31%fair 3.19 · @3.80
1.75Expected goals
1.00Suduva Marijampole xG
0.75Džiugas Telšiai xG
49%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–017%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Suduva Marijampole 1.0 – 0.8 Džiugas Telšiai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Suduva Marijampole to win✓
45%
2.22
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.76
–
Form
Suduva Marijampole – last 6
WLWDDW
3 Apr
vs FK Trakai
5–0
W
10 Mar
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0–1
L
7 Mar
vs TransINVEST Vilnius
2–0
W
1 Mar
vs Šiauliai
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Panevėžys
0–0
D
14 Feb
vs BFC Daugavpils
5–3
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Džiugas Telšiai – last 6
WDWWLW
5 Apr
@ Panevėžys
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ TransINVEST Vilnius
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Banga
1–0
W
11 Mar
@ FK Trakai
2–0
W
7 Mar
vs Kauno Žalgiris
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai.
What is the prediction for Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai?
On our numbers Suduva Marijampole have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Džiugas Telšiai 31%.
How many goals will there be in Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai?
Our predicted score is Suduva Marijampole 0–0 Džiugas Telšiai, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai?
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai (A Lyga) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:15 (West Africa Time) at Marijampole Football Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
