Value bet: Mebrat Hayl to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNegelle Arsi to win ✗39% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.47
Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl preview and prediction
The match
Negelle Arsi host Mebrat Hayl in the Premier League on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT). Negelle Arsi are 1st with 11 points from 5 games (top of the table), while Mebrat Hayl sit 8th on 7 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Negelle Arsi's last 4: DDLD Most recently they drew with Bahardar 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mebrat Hayl's last 4: WWLD Most recently they beat Ethiopia Bunna 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Mebrat Hayl arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.4 goals: 0.8 for Negelle Arsi and 0.7 for Mebrat Hayl. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 83% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Mebrat Hayl to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Negelle Arsi 0–0 Mebrat Hayl. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Negelle Arsi39%fair 2.60 · @2.38
Draw29%fair 3.48 · @2.45
Mebrat Hayl33%fair 3.05 · @3.30
1.43Expected goals
0.76Negelle Arsi xG
0.67Mebrat Hayl xG
45%Both score
17%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–024%
1–018%
0–116%
1–112%
2–07%
0–25%
From our goals model: Negelle Arsi 0.8 – 0.7 Mebrat Hayl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✗
39%
2.60
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.40
1.44
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
31%
3.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.47
–
Form
Negelle Arsi – last 4
DDLD
9 Mar
@ Bahardar
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Kedus Giorgis
0–0
D
26 Feb
vs Ethiopia Bunna
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Arba Minch Kenema
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mebrat Hayl – last 4
WWLD
8 Mar
vs Ethiopia Bunna
2–1
W
4 Mar
@ Arba Minch Kenema
4–1
W
27 Feb
vs Hadiya Hosaena
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Sheger Ketema
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Negelle Arsi and Mebrat Hayl.
What is the prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
On our numbers Negelle Arsi have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Mebrat Hayl 33%.
How many goals will there be in Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
We expect about 1.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 17% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
Our predicted score is Negelle Arsi 0–0 Mebrat Hayl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.4 goals in total.
When is Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mekelle Kenema0