Value bet: South Melbourne to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.91
South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II preview and prediction
The match
The Victoria NPL sees South Melbourne take on Melbourne City II on Friday 1 May, kicking off at 10:30 (WAT).
Form guide
South Melbourne's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat St. Albans Saints 4–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Melbourne City II's last 5: LLDDD Most recently they lost to Hume City 0–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
South Melbourne arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.8 for South Melbourne and 1.1 for Melbourne City II. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: South Melbourne 56%, draw 20%, Melbourne City II 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.57.
Value angle: South Melbourne to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne City II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
South Melbourne56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 5.07 · @3.50
Melbourne City II24%fair 4.13 · @3.25
2.88Expected goals
1.81South Melbourne xG
1.08Melbourne City II xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
3–16%
From our goals model: South Melbourne 1.8 – 1.1 Melbourne City II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Melbourne to win✗
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.40
Half-time result
South Melbourne ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne✗
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.91
–
Form
South Melbourne – last 6
WWLLWL
24 Apr
@ St. Albans Saints
4–0
W
21 Apr
vs Tahiti United
8–1
W
19 Apr
vs Oakleigh Cannons
0–3
L
18 Apr
vs Hekari United
1–2
L
15 Apr
vs Bula
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auckland FC 2
2–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Melbourne City II – last 6
LLDDDW
26 Apr
vs Hume City
0–1
L
18 Apr
@ Avondale
1–3
L
12 Apr
vs Sunshine Georgies
1–1
D
27 Mar
@ Heidelberg United
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Altona Magic
1–1
D
14 Mar
vs St. Albans Saints
5–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Melbourne and Melbourne City II.
What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
On our numbers South Melbourne have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Melbourne City II 24%.
How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
Our predicted score is South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne City II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria NPL · Australia
Green Gully0
Oakleigh Cannons5
Bentleigh Greens2
St. Albans Saints4