South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder preview and prediction
The match
South Melbourne host Dandenong Thunder in the Victoria NPL on Sunday 5 July, with kick-off at 06:30 (WAT).
Form guide
South Melbourne's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Green Gully 1–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Dandenong Thunder's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Hume City 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 4.2 conceded.
South Melbourne arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.7 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 March 2026, finished Dandenong Thunder 3–0 South Melbourne.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.7 for South Melbourne and 0.9 for Dandenong Thunder. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: South Melbourne 74%, draw 19%, Dandenong Thunder 7%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was South Melbourne to win – a 74% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: South Melbourne 2–0 Dandenong Thunder. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
South Melbourne74%fair 1.35 · @1.20
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @5.80
Dandenong Thunder7%fair 14.56 · @11.00
3.57Expected goals
2.72South Melbourne xG
0.86Dandenong Thunder xG
59%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
3–09%
2–19%
3–18%
1–08%
1–17%
From our goals model: South Melbourne 2.7 – 0.9 Dandenong Thunder expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?
Our pick is South Melbourne to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?
On our numbers South Melbourne have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Dandenong Thunder 7%.
How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?
Our predicted score is South Melbourne 2–0 Dandenong Thunder, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?
South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 06:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria NPL · Australia
