Value bet: South Melbourne to win @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✗50% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.95
Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne preview and prediction
The match
South Melbourne travel to George Andrews Reserve in the Victoria NPL on Saturday 21 March (09:00 WAT) to face Dandenong Thunder.
Form guide
Dandenong Thunder's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Hume City 1–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
South Melbourne's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Vanuatu United 0–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
South Melbourne arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.0 for Dandenong Thunder and 1.5 for South Melbourne. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dandenong Thunder 29%, draw 20%, South Melbourne 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.57.
Value angle: South Melbourne to win at 2.20 – 50% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Dandenong Thunder 1–1 South Melbourne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dandenong Thunder29%fair 3.44 · @2.80
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.50
South Melbourne50%fair 1.98 · @2.20
2.48Expected goals
1.02Dandenong Thunder xG
1.47South Melbourne xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Dandenong Thunder 1.0 – 1.5 South Melbourne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Melbourne to win✗
50%
1.98
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.05
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne✗
28%
3.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.95
–
Form
Dandenong Thunder – last 5
LLLLD
14 Mar
@ Hume City
1–3
L
7 Mar
vs Avondale
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Sunshine Georgies
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Heidelberg United
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Melbourne City II
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
South Melbourne – last 6
LWWWWW
15 Mar
@ Vanuatu United
0–2
L
13 Mar
@ Green Gully
1–0
W
7 Mar
vs Bentleigh Greens
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Solomon Kings
5–0
W
28 Feb
@ Altona Magic
2–1
W
27 Feb
vs South Island United
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dandenong Thunder and South Melbourne.
What is the prediction for Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne?
On our numbers Dandenong Thunder have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 20% and South Melbourne 50%.
How many goals will there be in Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne?
Our predicted score is Dandenong Thunder 1–1 South Melbourne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne?
Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at George Andrews Reserve.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria NPL · Australia · George Andrews Reserve
