Value bet: South Melbourne to win @ 2.25 – our chance 52% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✓52% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.46
Green Gully vs South Melbourne preview and prediction
The match
The Victoria NPL sees Green Gully take on South Melbourne on Friday 13 March, kicking off at 09:30 (WAT) at Green Gully Reserve.
Form guide
Green Gully's last 4: DLLL Most recently they drew with Hume City 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
South Melbourne's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Bentleigh Greens 1–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
South Melbourne arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.1 for Green Gully and 1.6 for South Melbourne. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Green Gully 27%, draw 21%, South Melbourne 52%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.55.
Value angle: South Melbourne to win at 2.25 – 52% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Green Gully 1–1 South Melbourne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Green Gully27%fair 3.64 · @2.75
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.45
South Melbourne52%fair 1.92 · @2.25
2.75Expected goals
1.10Green Gully xG
1.65South Melbourne xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Green Gully 1.1 – 1.6 South Melbourne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Melbourne to win✓
52%
1.92
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne✓
30%
3.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.46
–
Form
Green Gully – last 4
DLLL
6 Mar
vs Hume City
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Avondale
0–5
L
20 Feb
vs Sunshine Georgies
0–2
L
13 Feb
@ Heidelberg United
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
South Melbourne – last 6
WWWWDL
7 Mar
vs Bentleigh Greens
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Solomon Kings
5–0
W
28 Feb
@ Altona Magic
2–1
W
27 Feb
vs South Island United
4–1
W
21 Feb
vs Auckland FC 2
1–1
D
19 Feb
vs Hume City
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Green Gully and South Melbourne.
What is the prediction for Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
On our numbers Green Gully have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 21% and South Melbourne 52%.
How many goals will there be in Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
Our predicted score is Green Gully 1–1 South Melbourne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
Green Gully vs South Melbourne (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Green Gully Reserve.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria NPL · Australia · Green Gully Reserve
Oakleigh Cannons2
Heidelberg United3
Preston Lions1
Sunshine Georgies1