Value bet: Narva U21 to win @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNarva U21 to win ✓63% · @1.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓89% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.72
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.48
Narva U21 vs Luunja preview and prediction
The match
Luunja travel to face Narva U21 in the Esiliiga B on Thursday 23 April (16:00 WAT). Narva U21 are 1st with 76 points from 36 games (top of the table), while Luunja sit 4th on 62 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Narva U21's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Tulevik 1–0 away. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Luunja's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Tartu Kalev 0–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.5 for Narva U21 and 1.5 for Luunja. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Narva U21 63%, draw 11%, Luunja 26%.
Value angle: Narva U21 to win at 1.70 – 63% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Narva U21 2–1 Luunja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Narva U2163%fair 1.58 · @1.70
Draw11%fair 9.39 · @4.50
Luunja26%fair 3.85 · @3.25
3.94Expected goals
2.47Narva U21 xG
1.47Luunja xG
58%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
2–26%
2–06%
3–25%
From our goals model: Narva U21 2.5 – 1.5 Luunja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Narva U21 to win✓
63%
1.58
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
89%
1.12
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Narva U21 ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Narva U21 / FT Narva U21✓
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.48
–
Form
Narva U21 – last 5
WWWLW
19 Apr
@ Tulevik
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Levadia U19
4–0
W
4 Apr
vs Tallinna Kalev II
3–1
W
28 Mar
@ Johvi Phoenix
2–4
L
22 Mar
vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
5–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Luunja – last 5
LWWWW
19 Apr
vs Tartu Kalev
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Legion
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Johvi Phoenix
6–1
W
15 Mar
vs JK Tabasalu
4–3
W
10 Mar
vs Levadia U19
2–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Narva U21 and Luunja.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Narva U21 vs Luunja?
On our numbers Narva U21 have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Luunja 26%.
How many goals will there be in Narva U21 vs Luunja?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Narva U21 vs Luunja?
Our predicted score is Narva U21 2–1 Luunja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Narva U21 vs Luunja?
Narva U21 vs Luunja (Esiliiga B) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
