Value bet: Draw @ 3.45 – our chance 39% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +34%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗39% · @3.45
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗74% · @1.50
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗10% · fair 9.68
San Diego vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
San Diego host Toluca in the CONCACAF Champions League on Thursday 12 March, with kick-off at 04:30 (WAT) at Snapdragon Stadium.
Form guide
San Diego's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Sporting Kansas City 1–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Toluca's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat FC Juarez 3–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.4 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.4 for San Diego and 1.8 for Toluca. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 64%.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Diego 26%, draw 39%, Toluca 35%.
Safer route: Toluca or draw (74%) at 1.50.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Draw at 3.45 – 39% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca or draw – a 74% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.36, so there is value in it. Predicted score: San Diego 1–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Diego26%fair 3.80 · @2.50
Draw39%fair 2.57 · @3.45
Toluca35%fair 2.88 · @2.64
3.17Expected goals
1.37San Diego xG
1.81Toluca xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
0–18%
2–17%
0–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: San Diego 1.4 – 1.8 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
39%
2.57
3.45 ▲
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
74%
1.36
1.50 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.63
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
29%
3.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
10%
9.68
–
Form
San Diego – last 3
WWW
8 Mar
@ Sporting Kansas City
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs St. Louis City
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs CF Montreal
5–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 5
WWWWW
9 Mar
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Diego and Toluca.
Our pick is Toluca or draw with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win San Diego vs Toluca?
On our numbers San Diego have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 39% and Toluca 35%.
How many goals will there be in San Diego vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Diego vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is San Diego 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is San Diego vs Toluca?
San Diego vs Toluca (CONCACAF Champions League) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 04:30 (West Africa Time) at Snapdragon Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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