Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓68% · @1.19
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.00
Toluca vs San Diego preview and prediction
The match
San Diego travel to Estadio Nemesio Diez in the CONCACAF Champions League on Thursday 19 March (04:00 WAT) to face Toluca.
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Atlas 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
San Diego's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with FC Dallas 3–3 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 March 2026, finished San Diego 3–2 Toluca.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.6 for Toluca and 1.2 for San Diego. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 68%, draw 15%, San Diego 18%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Toluca 2–1 San Diego. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca68%fair 1.48 · @1.19
Draw15%fair 6.87 · @6.75
San Diego18%fair 5.61 · @12.00
3.80Expected goals
2.57Toluca xG
1.23San Diego xG
61%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
1–17%
3–06%
1–06%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.6 – 1.2 San Diego expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Toluca vs San Diego?
On our numbers Toluca have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 15% and San Diego 18%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs San Diego?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs San Diego?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 San Diego, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs San Diego?
Toluca vs San Diego (CONCACAF Champions League) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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