Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaxias to win ✓42% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.36
São Luiz vs Caxias preview and prediction
The match
The Gaúcho 1 sees São Luiz take on Caxias on Monday 16 February, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for São Luiz and 1.3 for Caxias. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: São Luiz 34%, draw 24%, Caxias 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 55% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: São Luiz 1–1 Caxias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São Luiz34%fair 2.94 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @2.85
Caxias42%fair 2.38 · @2.33
2.35Expected goals
1.10São Luiz xG
1.26Caxias xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: São Luiz 1.1 – 1.3 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✓
42%
2.38
2.33
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caxias / FT Caxias✓
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.36
–
Form
São Luiz
No recent results on record.
Caxias
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Luiz and Caxias.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win São Luiz vs Caxias?
On our numbers São Luiz have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Caxias 42%.
How many goals will there be in São Luiz vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Luiz vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is São Luiz 1–1 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is São Luiz vs Caxias?
São Luiz vs Caxias (Gaúcho 1) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Gaúcho 1 · Brazil
Ypiranga-RS0
Internacional3
Guarany de Bagé3
Inter Santa Maria2