Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: ATK Mohun Bagan to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultATK Mohun Bagan to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceATK Mohun Bagan or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.59
Goa vs ATK Mohun Bagan preview and prediction
The match
Goa host ATK Mohun Bagan in the Indian Super League on Saturday 9 May, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT) at Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium. Goa are 7th with 5 points from 4 games (in the top half), while ATK Mohun Bagan sit 1st on 12 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Goa's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Jamshedpur 0–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
ATK Mohun Bagan's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Jamshedpur 1–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
ATK Mohun Bagan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for Goa and 1.7 for ATK Mohun Bagan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: ATK Mohun Bagan or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.80.
Value angle: ATK Mohun Bagan to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was ATK Mohun Bagan or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Goa 0–1 ATK Mohun Bagan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Goa14%fair 6.97 · @3.95
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.30
ATK Mohun Bagan61%fair 1.64 · @1.85
2.43Expected goals
0.71Goa xG
1.72ATK Mohun Bagan xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–37%
From our goals model: Goa 0.7 – 1.7 ATK Mohun Bagan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ATK Mohun Bagan to win✗
61%
1.64
1.85 ▲
Double chance
ATK Mohun Bagan or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ATK Mohun Bagan / FT ATK Mohun Bagan✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.59
–
Form
Goa – last 6
LWWDDD
1 May
@ Jamshedpur
0–2
L
24 Apr
@ NorthEast United
2–0
W
10 Apr
vs Odisha
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Chennaiyin
1–1
D
16 Mar
@ Minerva Punjab
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ East Bengal II
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
ATK Mohun Bagan – last 5
DLWWW
4 Apr
@ Jamshedpur
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs Mumbai City
0–1
L
6 Mar
vs Odisha
5–1
W
23 Feb
vs Chennaiyin
2–0
W
14 Feb
vs Kerala Blasters
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Goa and ATK Mohun Bagan.
What is the prediction for Goa vs ATK Mohun Bagan?
Our pick is ATK Mohun Bagan or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Goa vs ATK Mohun Bagan?
On our numbers Goa have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 25% and ATK Mohun Bagan 61%.
How many goals will there be in Goa vs ATK Mohun Bagan?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Goa vs ATK Mohun Bagan?
Our predicted score is Goa 0–1 ATK Mohun Bagan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Goa vs ATK Mohun Bagan?
Goa vs ATK Mohun Bagan (Indian Super League) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Jamshedpur0