Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 – our chance 52% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultATK Mohun Bagan to win ✓65% · @1.30
Double chanceATK Mohun Bagan or draw ✓85% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.46
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin preview and prediction
The match
Chennaiyin travel to Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan in the Indian Super League on Monday 23 February (15:00 WAT) to face ATK Mohun Bagan. ATK Mohun Bagan are 1st with 12 points from 5 games (top of the table), while Chennaiyin sit 8th on 5 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for ATK Mohun Bagan and 0.6 for Chennaiyin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 – 52% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.45, above our fair price of 1.38, so there is value in it. Predicted score: ATK Mohun Bagan 1–0 Chennaiyin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ATK Mohun Bagan65%fair 1.55 · @1.30
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @4.80
Chennaiyin15%fair 6.83 · @8.40
2.26Expected goals
1.63ATK Mohun Bagan xG
0.63Chennaiyin xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: ATK Mohun Bagan 1.6 – 0.6 Chennaiyin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ATK Mohun Bagan to win✓
65%
1.55
1.30
Double chance
ATK Mohun Bagan or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.45 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ATK Mohun Bagan / FT ATK Mohun Bagan✓
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.46
–
Form
ATK Mohun Bagan – last 1
W
14 Feb
vs Kerala Blasters
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Chennaiyin – last 1
L
19 Feb
@ Mumbai City
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ATK Mohun Bagan and Chennaiyin.
What is the prediction for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin?
On our numbers ATK Mohun Bagan have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chennaiyin 15%.
How many goals will there be in ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin?
Our predicted score is ATK Mohun Bagan 1–0 Chennaiyin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin?
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin (Indian Super League) kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
