Value bet: Al Nasr to win @ 1.77 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Nasr to win ✓63% · @1.77
Double chanceAl Nasr or draw ✓84% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.07
Al Nasr vs Sur preview and prediction
The match
Sur travel to face Al Nasr in the Professional League on Sunday 15 February (15:50 WAT). Al Nasr are 3rd with 12 points from 6 games (in the top four), while Sur sit 12th on 6 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Al Nasr and 0.8 for Sur. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Nasr 63%, draw 21%, Sur 16%.
Safer route: Al Nasr or draw (84%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Al Nasr to win at 1.77 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Al Nasr 1–0 Sur. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Nasr63%fair 1.59 · @1.77
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.20
Sur16%fair 6.11 · @4.50
2.53Expected goals
1.78Al Nasr xG
0.75Sur xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Al Nasr 1.8 – 0.8 Sur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Nasr to win✓
63%
1.59
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Al Nasr or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.20
Half-time result
Al Nasr ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Nasr / FT Al Nasr✓
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.07
–
Form
Al Nasr
No recent results on record.
Sur
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Nasr and Sur.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Al Nasr vs Sur?
On our numbers Al Nasr have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sur 16%.
How many goals will there be in Al Nasr vs Sur?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Nasr vs Sur?
Our predicted score is Al Nasr 1–0 Sur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Al Nasr vs Sur?
Al Nasr vs Sur (Professional League) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 15:50 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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