The Carioca 1 sees Botafogo take on Flamengo on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Botafogo and 1.8 for Flamengo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Botafogo 0–1 Flamengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Botafogo15%fair 6.65 · @5.00
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.45
Flamengo63%fair 1.59 · @1.67
2.50Expected goals
0.72Botafogo xG
1.78Flamengo xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–38%
From our goals model: Botafogo 0.7 – 1.8 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
63%
1.59
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.86
–
Form
Botafogo
No recent results on record.
Flamengo
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Flamengo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Botafogo vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Flamengo 63%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Botafogo vs Flamengo (Carioca 1) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Carioca 1 · Brazil · Estádio Nilton Santos
Vasco DA Gama1
Volta Redonda1