Serie B · Brazil

Vila Nova

DLDWD
1–0
FT

Criciuma

WLWWL

Vila Nova vs Criciuma prediction & analysis

65%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2

Value bet: Criciuma to win @ 3.30 – our chance 37% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultVila Nova to win ✓38% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓12% · fair 8.21

Win chances

Vila Nova38%fair 2.65 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
Criciuma37%fair 2.71 · @3.30
2.22Expected goals
1.12Vila Nova xG
1.10Criciuma xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–17%
1–27%

From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.1 – 1.1 Criciuma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Vila Nova and Criciuma on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 25% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Vila Nova have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Criciuma have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded.

We expect around 2.2 goals (1.1 for Vila Nova, 1.1 for Criciuma). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (12%).

In their last 1 meeting, Vila Nova have won 0, Criciuma have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.54. For a bigger price, Criciuma to win at 3.30 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultVila Nova to win ✓38%2.652.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.341.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.952.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗65%1.541.44
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓61%1.631.53
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80%1.241.18
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova ✓20%4.95–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓12%8.21–

Form

Vila Nova – last 6

DLDWDW
31 Octvs Juventude2–2D
24 Oct@ São Bernardo2–3L
18 Octvs Novorizontino2–2D
11 Oct@ Nautico Recife2–0W
8 Octvs Cuiaba0–0D
3 Oct@ Botafogo SP1–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Criciuma – last 6

WLWWLW
30 Octvs Ponte Preta2–0W
24 Oct@ Sport Recife1–2L
18 Oct@ São Bernardo1–0W
12 Octvs America Mineiro1–0W
8 Oct@ Ceara0–1L
3 Oct@ Londrina2–0W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

18 Jul 2026Criciuma v Vila Nova2–0

More Serie B predictions

FT Cuiaba1 Juventude2 292447 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.50 ✗ FT Avai2 São Bernardo1 332344 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓ FT Novorizontino2 Fortaleza EC1 672310 1Novorizontino to win 67%@1.73 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

On our numbers Vila Nova have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Criciuma 37%.

How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

When is Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

Vila Nova vs Criciuma (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.