Serie B · Brazil · Ressacada

Avai

LLDWW
2–1
FT

São Bernardo

WWLDL

Avai vs São Bernardo prediction & analysis

76%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds
1

Value bet: Avai to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗44% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.46

Win chances

Avai33%fair 3.04 · @3.40
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.10
São Bernardo44%fair 2.28 · @2.25
2.41Expected goals
1.09Avai xG
1.32São Bernardo xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%

From our goals model: Avai 1.1 – 1.3 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

São Bernardo shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 33% for Avai.

Avai have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. São Bernardo have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.

We expect around 2.4 goals (1.1 for Avai, 1.3 for São Bernardo). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%).

In their last 1 meeting, Avai have won 0, São Bernardo have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.31. For a bigger price, Avai to win at 3.40 is our value angle (33% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSão Bernardo to win ✗44%2.282.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.301.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.941.83
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.421.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗56%1.791.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.311.25
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓45%2.22–
Half-time / full-timeHT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo ✗24%4.13–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12%8.46–

Form

Avai – last 6

LLDWWL
31 Oct@ Nautico Recife0–1L
24 Octvs Botafogo SP0–2L
18 Octvs Athletic Club0–0D
11 Oct@ Cuiaba1–0W
7 Octvs Londrina2–1W
3 Octvs Ceara0–1L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

São Bernardo – last 6

WWLDLW
1 Nov@ Cuiaba2–1W
24 Octvs Vila Nova3–2W
18 Octvs Criciuma0–1L
11 Oct@ Juventude2–2D
6 Oct@ Sport Recife1–2L
2 Octvs CRB3–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

17 Jul 2026São Bernardo v Avai1–1

More Serie B predictions

FT Vila Nova1 Criciuma0 382537 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 65%@1.44 ✗ FT Cuiaba1 Juventude2 292447 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.50 ✗ FT Novorizontino2 Fortaleza EC1 672310 1Novorizontino to win 67%@1.73 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Avai vs São Bernardo?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Avai vs São Bernardo?

On our numbers Avai have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and São Bernardo 44%.

How many goals will there be in Avai vs São Bernardo?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

When is Avai vs São Bernardo?

Avai vs São Bernardo (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Ressacada.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.