Value bet: Fortaleza EC to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSport Recife to win ✗38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.34
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC preview and prediction
The match
Sport Recife host Fortaleza EC in the Serie B on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Ilha do Retiro. Sport Recife are 9th with 55 points from 37 games (in the top half), while Fortaleza EC sit 5th on 62 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Sport Recife's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Atletico Goianiense 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Fortaleza EC's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with CRB 2–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 June 2026, finished Fortaleza EC 2–1 Sport Recife. Across their last 4 meetings Sport Recife have won 1, Fortaleza EC 3, with 0 draws and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Sport Recife and 1.1 for Fortaleza EC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sport Recife 38%, draw 24%, Fortaleza EC 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Fortaleza EC to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Sport Recife 1–1 Fortaleza EC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sport Recife38%fair 2.62 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.10
Fortaleza EC38%fair 2.66 · @2.90
2.24Expected goals
1.13Sport Recife xG
1.11Fortaleza EC xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.1 – 1.1 Fortaleza EC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fortaleza EC 38%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 1–1 Fortaleza EC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Ilha do Retiro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
