Sport Recife vs São Bernardo preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Sport Recife take on São Bernardo on Tuesday 6 October, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Ilha do Retiro. Sport Recife are 9th with 55 points from 37 games (in the top half), while São Bernardo sit 11th on 52 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sport Recife's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Athletic Club 2–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
São Bernardo's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat CRB 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
São Bernardo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 June 2026, finished São Bernardo 0–0 Sport Recife.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Sport Recife and 0.9 for São Bernardo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sport Recife 56%, draw 20%, São Bernardo 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sport Recife to win – a 56% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.77, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sport Recife 1–0 São Bernardo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sport Recife56%fair 1.77 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.30
São Bernardo23%fair 4.33 · @3.90
2.42Expected goals
1.56Sport Recife xG
0.86São Bernardo xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.6 – 0.9 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Sport Recife to win with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Sport Recife vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 20% and São Bernardo 23%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 1–0 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs São Bernardo?
Sport Recife vs São Bernardo (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Ilha do Retiro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
