Serie B · Brazil · Estadio Joaquim PortugalAthletic Club vs Sport Recife prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.98 · bookmaker 1.83 · Won ✓
Value bet: Athletic Club to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Athletic Club 1.3 – 1.1 Sport Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Athletic Club hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 34% for Sport Recife.
Athletic Club have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Sport Recife have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 for Athletic Club, 1.1 for Sport Recife). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 2 meetings, Athletic Club have won 1, Sport Recife have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.83 is close to our fair price of 1.98. For a bigger price, Athletic Club to win at 2.50 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Athletic Club to win ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | 2.50 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.98 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Athletic Club / FT Athletic Club ✗ | 23% | 4.26 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.25 | – |
Form
Athletic Club – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Fortaleza EC | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Botafogo SP | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Juventude | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Sep | @ Cuiaba | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Vila Nova | 5–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Nautico Recife | 1–2 | L |
Sport Recife – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Nautico Recife | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Juventude | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ CRB | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Ceara | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Novorizontino | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 11 Jun 2026 | Sport Recife v Athletic Club | 1–1 |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Sport Recife v Athletic Club | 1–3 |
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 |  Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 |  Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 |  CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 |  Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 |  Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 10 |  Operario-PR | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 37 | +10 | 52 |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Athletic Club | 37 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 37 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 |  Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 |  Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 37 | -58 | 15 |
More Serie B predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
On our numbers Athletic Club have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sport Recife 34%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Joaquim Portugal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.