Value bet: Nautico Recife to win @ 3.80 – our chance 34% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCuiaba to win ✓43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.15
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife preview and prediction
The match
Cuiaba host Nautico Recife in the Serie B on Tuesday 22 September, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Arena Pantanal. Cuiaba are 13th with 47 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Nautico Recife sit 15th on 46 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cuiaba's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Novorizontino 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Nautico Recife's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Operario-PR 3–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 May 2026, finished Nautico Recife 1–0 Cuiaba.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Cuiaba and 1.0 for Nautico Recife. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Value angle: Nautico Recife to win at 3.80 – 34% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.82, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cuiaba 1–1 Nautico Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cuiaba43%fair 2.34 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Nautico Recife34%fair 2.95 · @3.80
2.09Expected goals
1.13Cuiaba xG
0.96Nautico Recife xG
55%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Cuiaba 1.1 – 1.0 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Cuiaba have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nautico Recife 34%.
How many goals will there be in Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Cuiaba 1–1 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife?
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pantanal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
