Serie B · Brazil · Estádio da RessacadaAvai vs Vila Nova prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.88 · bookmaker 2.00 · Won ✓
Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Avai 1.2 – 1.2 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Avai and Vila Nova on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Avai have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 per game. Vila Nova have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. Vila Nova come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.2 for Avai, 1.2 for Vila Nova). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Avai have won 0, Vila Nova have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 53% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.00 is better than our fair price of 1.88, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Vila Nova to win at 2.90 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vila Nova to win ✗ | 38% | 2.66 | 2.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.23 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova ✗ | 21% | 4.75 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.31 | – |
Form
Avai – last 6
| 9 Sep | @ Fortaleza EC | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Novorizontino | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Atletico Goianiense | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Aug | vs Sport Recife | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Operario-PR | 2–1 | W |
Vila Nova – last 6
| 10 Sep | vs Goias | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Athletic Club | 0–5 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Ceara | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Operario-PR | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Aug | vs Ponte Preta | 6–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Atletico Goianiense | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 17 May 2026 | Vila Nova v Avai | 2–0 |
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 |  Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 |  Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 |  CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 |  Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 |  Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 10 |  Operario-PR | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 37 | +10 | 52 |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Athletic Club | 37 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 37 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 |  Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 |  Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 37 | -58 | 15 |
More Serie B predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Avai vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Avai vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Avai have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vila Nova 38%.
How many goals will there be in Avai vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Avai vs Vila Nova?
Avai vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Ressacada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.