Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAmerica Mineiro to win ✗38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.58
America Mineiro vs São Bernardo preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees America Mineiro take on São Bernardo on Monday 14 September, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Arena Independência. America Mineiro are 19th with 29 points from 37 games (in the bottom three), while São Bernardo sit 11th on 52 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
America Mineiro's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Nautico Recife 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
São Bernardo's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Londrina 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for America Mineiro and 1.2 for São Bernardo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: America Mineiro 38%, draw 25%, São Bernardo 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: São Bernardo to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: America Mineiro 1–1 São Bernardo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
America Mineiro38%fair 2.61 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
São Bernardo36%fair 2.76 · @3.10
2.50Expected goals
1.27America Mineiro xG
1.23São Bernardo xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: America Mineiro 1.3 – 1.2 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
America Mineiro to win✗
38%
2.61
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT America Mineiro / FT America Mineiro✗
22%
4.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.58
–
Form
America Mineiro – last 6
WLWLLL
10 Sep
vs Nautico Recife
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ CRB
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Ponte Preta
2–0
W
24 Aug
@ Sport Recife
0–3
L
21 Aug
@ Novorizontino
0–3
L
16 Aug
vs Athletic Club
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 6
LWLDDL
10 Sep
vs Londrina
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Ponte Preta
2–0
W
28 Aug
@ Goias
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Nautico Recife
1–1
D
19 Aug
@ Fortaleza EC
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Botafogo SP
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between America Mineiro and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers America Mineiro have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and São Bernardo 36%.
How many goals will there be in America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is America Mineiro 1–1 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
America Mineiro vs São Bernardo (Serie B) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Independência.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
