Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Sport Recife to win @ 1.84 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSport Recife to win ✗63% · @1.84
Double chanceSport Recife or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.46
Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP preview and prediction
The match
Sport Recife host Botafogo SP in the Serie B on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Sport Recife are 9th with 55 points from 37 games (in the top half), while Botafogo SP sit 12th on 51 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sport Recife's last 5: LLDDD Most recently they lost to Criciuma 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Botafogo SP's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Avai 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Botafogo SP arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Sport Recife and 0.6 for Botafogo SP. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sport Recife 63%, draw 24%, Botafogo SP 13%.
Safer route: Sport Recife or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Sport Recife to win at 1.84 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sport Recife or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sport Recife 1–0 Botafogo SP. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sport Recife63%fair 1.59 · @1.84
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.35
Botafogo SP13%fair 7.67 · @4.40
2.17Expected goals
1.60Sport Recife xG
0.57Botafogo SP xG
49%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.6 – 0.6 Botafogo SP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sport Recife to win✗
63%
1.59
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Sport Recife or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sport Recife / FT Sport Recife✗
39%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.46
–
Form
Sport Recife – last 6
LLDDDW
4 Jul
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
28 Jun
@ Fortaleza EC
1–2
L
19 Jun
vs Atletico Goianiense
1–1
D
14 Jun
@ São Bernardo
0–0
D
11 Jun
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
31 May
vs Nautico Recife
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Botafogo SP – last 6
WLWWLD
6 Jul
vs Avai
3–1
W
1 Jul
vs CRB
0–1
L
20 Jun
@ Ceara
1–0
W
14 Jun
vs Operario-PR
2–1
W
9 Jun
@ Vila Nova
0–1
L
1 Jun
@ Ponte Preta
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sport Recife and Botafogo SP.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP?
Our pick is Sport Recife or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Botafogo SP 13%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 1–0 Botafogo SP, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP?
Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
