Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Ceara to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCeara to win ✗58% · @1.90
Double chanceCeara or draw ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Ceara vs Athletic Club preview and prediction
The match
Ceara host Athletic Club in the Serie B on Tuesday 14 July, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estádio Presidente Vargas. Ceara are 16th with 43 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Athletic Club sit 14th on 47 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Ceara's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Goias 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Athletic Club's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Operario-PR 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Athletic Club arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Ceara and 0.7 for Athletic Club. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ceara 58%, draw 22%, Athletic Club 21%.
Safer route: Ceara or draw (79%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Ceara to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ceara 1–0 Athletic Club. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ceara58%fair 1.73 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.25
Athletic Club21%fair 4.83 · @4.30
2.22Expected goals
1.49Ceara xG
0.73Athletic Club xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Ceara 1.5 – 0.7 Athletic Club expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ceara to win✗
58%
1.73
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Ceara or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ceara / FT Ceara✗
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Form
Ceara – last 6
LLLDWL
5 Jul
@ Goias
0–2
L
28 Jun
@ Juventude
0–2
L
20 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
0–1
L
16 Jun
@ Criciuma
1–1
D
11 Jun
vs Avai
2–1
W
31 May
vs Operario-PR
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Athletic Club – last 6
LWLDDW
8 Jul
vs Operario-PR
0–1
L
28 Jun
vs Avai
1–0
W
20 Jun
@ Londrina
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs Goias
1–1
D
11 Jun
@ Sport Recife
1–1
D
30 May
vs Fortaleza EC
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ceara and Athletic Club.
What is the prediction for Ceara vs Athletic Club?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ceara vs Athletic Club?
On our numbers Ceara have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Athletic Club 21%.
How many goals will there be in Ceara vs Athletic Club?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ceara vs Athletic Club?
Our predicted score is Ceara 1–0 Athletic Club, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Ceara vs Athletic Club?
Ceara vs Athletic Club (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 14 July 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Presidente Vargas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
