Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 1.93 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovorizontino to win ✓64% · @1.93
Double chanceNovorizontino or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.57
Novorizontino vs Vila Nova preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Novorizontino take on Vila Nova on Friday 26 June, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi. Novorizontino are 1st with 70 points from 37 games (top of the table), while Vila Nova sit 3rd on 66 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Novorizontino's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Ponte Preta 2–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Vila Nova's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Nautico Recife 4–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Novorizontino and 0.7 for Vila Nova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Novorizontino 64%, draw 22%, Vila Nova 14%.
Safer route: Novorizontino or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Novorizontino to win at 1.93 – 64% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Novorizontino or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Novorizontino 1–0 Vila Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novorizontino64%fair 1.56 · @1.93
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.10
Vila Nova14%fair 7.24 · @4.30
2.46Expected goals
1.79Novorizontino xG
0.68Vila Nova xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Novorizontino 1.8 – 0.7 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✓
64%
1.56
1.93 ▲
Double chance
Novorizontino or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Novorizontino ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.57
–
Form
Novorizontino – last 6
WDWDDL
23 Jun
@ Ponte Preta
2–0
W
14 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
2–2
D
11 Jun
@ Goias
4–0
W
31 May
@ São Bernardo
1–1
D
27 May
@ Chapecoense-sc
2–2
D
20 May
vs Chapecoense-sc
0–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
WLWWWW
20 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
4–3
W
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
31 May
@ Londrina
1–0
W
24 May
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
17 May
vs Avai
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novorizontino and Vila Nova.
What is the prediction for Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Novorizontino or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Novorizontino have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vila Nova 14%.
How many goals will there be in Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Novorizontino 1–0 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
Novorizontino vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 26 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
