Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Nautico Recife to win @ 1.93 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNautico Recife to win ✓59% · @1.93
Double chanceNautico Recife or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓19% · fair 5.25
Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba preview and prediction
The match
Nautico Recife host Cuiaba in the Serie B on Friday 22 May, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Aflitos. Nautico Recife are 15th with 46 points from 38 games (in the bottom half), while Cuiaba sit 13th on 47 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nautico Recife's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat Athletic Club 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cuiaba's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Novorizontino 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Nautico Recife arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.4 for Nautico Recife and 0.6 for Cuiaba. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Nautico Recife or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Nautico Recife to win at 1.93 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nautico Recife or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Nautico Recife 1–0 Cuiaba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nautico Recife59%fair 1.71 · @1.93
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.00
Cuiaba18%fair 5.43 · @4.50
1.99Expected goals
1.39Nautico Recife xG
0.60Cuiaba xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
0–014%
2–013%
1–111%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Nautico Recife 1.4 – 0.6 Cuiaba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nautico Recife to win✓
59%
1.71
1.93 ▲
Double chance
Nautico Recife or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.05
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nautico Recife / FT Nautico Recife✗
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
19%
5.25
–
Form
Nautico Recife – last 4
WLWW
27 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Ceara
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santa Cruz
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Cuiaba – last 6
DLDLLD
17 May
vs Novorizontino
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Anápolis
0–4
L
23 Apr
vs Botafogo SP
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Porto Vitória
2–3
L
8 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ Fortaleza EC
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nautico Recife and Cuiaba.
What is the prediction for Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba?
Our pick is Nautico Recife or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba?
On our numbers Nautico Recife have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cuiaba 18%.
How many goals will there be in Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba?
Our predicted score is Nautico Recife 1–0 Cuiaba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba?
Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Aflitos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
