Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Gyeongju HNP or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Gyeongju HNP to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGyeongju HNP to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceGyeongju HNP or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.78
Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City preview and prediction
The match
Changwon City travel to Gyeongju Civic Stadium in the K3 League on Sunday 20 September (09:00 WAT) to face Gyeongju HNP. Gyeongju HNP are 5th with 40 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Changwon City sit 11th on 30 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Gyeongju HNP's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Gangneung City 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Changwon City's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Siheung Citizen 1–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Gyeongju HNP arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Changwon City 3–2 Gyeongju HNP.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Gyeongju HNP and 0.7 for Changwon City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gyeongju HNP 63%, draw 25%, Changwon City 12%.
Safer route: Gyeongju HNP or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Gyeongju HNP to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Gyeongju HNP or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gyeongju HNP 1–0 Changwon City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gyeongju HNP63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.00
Changwon City12%fair 8.41 · @3.80
2.52Expected goals
1.83Gyeongju HNP xG
0.69Changwon City xG
49%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Gyeongju HNP 1.8 – 0.7 Changwon City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
Our pick is Gyeongju HNP or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
On our numbers Gyeongju HNP have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Changwon City 12%.
How many goals will there be in Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
Our predicted score is Gyeongju HNP 1–0 Changwon City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City (K3 League) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Gyeongju Civic Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
