Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✓66% · @1.45
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.58
AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar preview and prediction
The match
The KNVB Beker sees AZ Alkmaar take on Telstar on Wednesday 4 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at AFAS Stadion.
Form guide
AZ Alkmaar's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Utrecht 0–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Telstar's last 3: WLD Most recently they beat NAC Breda 3–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.4 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.1 for Telstar. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 64% and both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AZ Alkmaar 66%, draw 20%, Telstar 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.70 – 63% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Telstar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AZ Alkmaar66%fair 1.52 · @1.45
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @4.40
Telstar14%fair 6.94 · @6.40
3.58Expected goals
2.45AZ Alkmaar xG
1.14Telstar xG
63%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.4 – 1.1 Telstar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✓
66%
1.52
1.45
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.70 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.50
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.58
–
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 4
LWWL
1 Mar
@ Utrecht
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs FC Noah
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Sparta Rotterdam
3–1
W
19 Feb
@ FC Noah
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Telstar – last 3
WLD
27 Feb
vs NAC Breda
3–0
W
22 Feb
@ Feyenoord
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Twente
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Telstar.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Telstar 14%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Telstar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar (KNVB Beker) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
