Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Sociedad to win ✓41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.87
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club preview and prediction
The match
Athletic Club travel to Reale Arena in the Copa Del Rey on Wednesday 4 March (21:00 WAT) to face Real Sociedad.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Athletic Club. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Sociedad 41%, draw 26%, Athletic Club 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Real Sociedad 1–1 Athletic Club. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Sociedad41%fair 2.46 · @2.20
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.35
Athletic Club33%fair 3.00 · @3.20
2.93Expected goals
1.47Real Sociedad xG
1.46Athletic Club xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Real Sociedad 1.5 – 1.5 Athletic Club expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Attack vs Copa Del Rey average
+1%
+40%
Goals conceded vs average
-11%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.48
1.64
Our own ratings from every Copa Del Rey result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Sociedad to win✓
41%
2.46
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
2.05
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Sociedad / FT Real Sociedad✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.87
–
Form
Real Sociedad – last 1
D
21 Feb
vs Oviedo
3–3
D
3.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Athletic Club – last 2
WW
20 Feb
vs Elche
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Oviedo
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Sociedad and Athletic Club.
What is the prediction for Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
On our numbers Real Sociedad have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Athletic Club 33%.
How many goals will there be in Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
Our predicted score is Real Sociedad 1–1 Athletic Club, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club (Copa Del Rey) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Reale Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
