Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
Barcelona host Atletico Madrid in the Copa Del Rey on Tuesday 3 March, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Camp Nou.
Form guide
Atletico Madrid's last 3: WDL Most recently they beat Club Brugge KV 4–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.4 for Barcelona and 1.2 for Atletico Madrid. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 72% and both teams to score at 67%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Barcelona 64%, draw 18%, Atletico Madrid 17%.
Safer route: Barcelona or draw (83%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.36.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Barcelona 2–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Barcelona64%fair 1.55 · @1.48
Draw18%fair 5.52 · @5.00
Atletico Madrid17%fair 5.72 · @5.20
3.60Expected goals
2.39Barcelona xG
1.21Atletico Madrid xG
67%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
2–08%
3–18%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Barcelona 2.4 – 1.2 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Attack vs Copa Del Rey average
+10%
-7%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
+10%
Our expected goals here
2.39
1.24
Our own ratings from every Copa Del Rey result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barcelona to win✓
64%
1.55
1.48
Double chance
Barcelona or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.49
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.06
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.62
Half-time result
Barcelona ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barcelona / FT Barcelona✓
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.59
–
Form
Barcelona – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Levante
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Girona
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 3
WDL
24 Feb
vs Club Brugge KV
4–1
W
18 Feb
@ Club Brugge KV
3–3
D
15 Feb
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–3
L
2.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Barcelona have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Atletico Madrid 17%.
How many goals will there be in Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Barcelona 2–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid (Copa Del Rey) kicks off on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Camp Nou.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
