Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.79
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.45
Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev preview and prediction
The match
Tallinna Kalev travel to Holm Jalgpallipark in the Esiliiga A on Friday 23 October (17:00 WAT) to face Tartu Welco. Tartu Welco are 1st with 80 points from 36 games (top of the table), while Tallinna Kalev sit 7th on 41 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 39 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tartu Welco's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Nõmme United II 4–3 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tallinna Kalev's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to FCI Levadia II 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Tartu Welco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 September 2026, finished Tallinna Kalev 1–1 Tartu Welco. Across their last 2 meetings Tartu Welco have won 1, Tallinna Kalev 0, with 1 draw and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.7 for Tartu Welco and 1.3 for Tallinna Kalev. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tartu Welco 65%, draw 19%, Tallinna Kalev 16%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Tartu Welco 2–1 Tallinna Kalev. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tartu Welco65%fair 1.53 · @1.40
Draw19%fair 5.28 · @4.75
Tallinna Kalev16%fair 6.33 · @5.25
3.98Expected goals
2.67Tartu Welco xG
1.31Tallinna Kalev xG
56%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
1–17%
3–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: Tartu Welco 2.7 – 1.3 Tallinna Kalev expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev?
On our numbers Tartu Welco have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tallinna Kalev 16%.
How many goals will there be in Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev?
Our predicted score is Tartu Welco 2–1 Tallinna Kalev, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev?
Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Holm Jalgpallipark.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
