Value bet: Flora II to win @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlora II to win ✓60% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.70
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.84
Flora II vs Nõmme United II preview and prediction
The match
Flora II host Nõmme United II in the Esiliiga A on Thursday 22 October, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Sportland Arena. Flora II are 5th with 52 points from 35 games (in the top half), while Nõmme United II sit 9th on 40 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Flora II's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to FC Tallinn 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Nõmme United II's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Tartu Welco 3–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 July 2026, finished Nõmme United II 1–1 Flora II. Across their last 3 meetings Flora II have won 0, Nõmme United II 0, with 3 draws and 4.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.5 for Flora II and 1.6 for Nõmme United II. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 78% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Flora II 60%, draw 15%, Nõmme United II 25%.
Value angle: Flora II to win at 1.83 – 60% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Flora II 2–1 Nõmme United II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Flora II60%fair 1.66 · @1.83
Draw15%fair 6.84 · @4.75
Nõmme United II25%fair 3.97 · @2.80
4.04Expected goals
2.49Flora II xG
1.55Nõmme United II xG
59%Both score
78%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–17%
1–17%
2–27%
3–25%
2–05%
From our goals model: Flora II 2.5 – 1.6 Nõmme United II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Flora II vs Nõmme United II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Flora II vs Nõmme United II?
On our numbers Flora II have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Nõmme United II 25%.
How many goals will there be in Flora II vs Nõmme United II?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flora II vs Nõmme United II?
Our predicted score is Flora II 2–1 Nõmme United II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Flora II vs Nõmme United II?
Flora II vs Nõmme United II (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportland Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
