Value bet: Nõmme Kalju II to win @ 1.62 – our chance 66% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNõmme Kalju II to win ✓66% · @1.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.79
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.82
Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II preview and prediction
The match
The Esiliiga A sees Nõmme Kalju II take on FCI Levadia II on Monday 11 May, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Hiiu Stadium. Nõmme Kalju II are 10th with 24 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while FCI Levadia II sit 3rd on 57 points (in the top four). A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nõmme Kalju II's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Elva 4–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
FCI Levadia II's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Viimsi 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Nõmme Kalju II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 2.7 for Nõmme Kalju II and 1.4 for FCI Levadia II. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 77% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nõmme Kalju II 66%, draw 16%, FCI Levadia II 18%.
Value angle: Nõmme Kalju II to win at 1.62 – 66% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Nõmme Kalju II 2–1 FCI Levadia II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nõmme Kalju II66%fair 1.51 · @1.62
Draw16%fair 6.44 · @4.20
FCI Levadia II18%fair 5.48 · @3.80
4.10Expected goals
2.71Nõmme Kalju II xG
1.39FCI Levadia II xG
56%Both score
77%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–18%
1–16%
2–06%
2–26%
3–06%
From our goals model: Nõmme Kalju II 2.7 – 1.4 FCI Levadia II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nõmme Kalju II to win✓
66%
1.51
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Nõmme Kalju II ahead at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nõmme Kalju II / FT Nõmme Kalju II✗
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.82
–
Form
Nõmme Kalju II – last 6
WLWWLL
2 May
@ Elva
4–2
W
27 Apr
vs Tallinna Kalev
0–4
L
24 Apr
@ Nõmme United II
3–0
W
18 Apr
vs Maardu
3–2
W
11 Apr
vs Tartu Welco
1–5
L
4 Apr
@ FC Tallinn
3–6
L
2.3Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
FCI Levadia II – last 6
LLWLLL
1 May
vs Viimsi
1–2
L
27 Apr
@ FC Tallinn
2–4
L
23 Apr
vs Tallinna Kalev
3–2
W
17 Apr
@ Tartu Welco
2–3
L
11 Apr
@ Maardu
2–3
L
5 Apr
vs Flora II
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nõmme Kalju II and FCI Levadia II.
What is the prediction for Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II?
On our numbers Nõmme Kalju II have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 16% and FCI Levadia II 18%.
How many goals will there be in Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II?
Our predicted score is Nõmme Kalju II 2–1 FCI Levadia II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II?
Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Hiiu Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
