Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco preview and prediction
The match
The Esiliiga A sees Nõmme Kalju II take on Tartu Welco on Saturday 11 April, kicking off at 10:30 (WAT) at Hiiu Stadium. Nõmme Kalju II are 10th with 24 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Tartu Welco sit 1st on 80 points (top of the table). A gap of 56 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tartu Welco's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Nõmme United II 3–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 1.1 for Nõmme Kalju II and 2.9 for Tartu Welco. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nõmme Kalju II 11%, draw 16%, Tartu Welco 73%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tartu Welco to win – a 73% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 Tartu Welco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nõmme Kalju II11%fair 9.39 · @7.50
Draw16%fair 6.20 · @4.90
Tartu Welco73%fair 1.37 · @1.25
3.94Expected goals
1.08Nõmme Kalju II xG
2.86Tartu Welco xG
62%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–38%
0–28%
0–38%
1–16%
1–46%
From our goals model: Nõmme Kalju II 1.1 – 2.9 Tartu Welco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tartu Welco to win✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Double chance
Tartu Welco or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.04
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.82
Half-time result
Tartu Welco ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tartu Welco / FT Tartu Welco✓
51%
1.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.64
–
Form
Nõmme Kalju II – last 2
LL
4 Apr
@ FC Tallinn
3–6
L
19 Mar
@ Flora II
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
4.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Tartu Welco – last 3
WLW
3 Apr
@ Nõmme United II
3–1
W
10 Mar
@ Vaprus
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Tallinna Kalev
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nõmme Kalju II and Tartu Welco.
What is the prediction for Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
Our pick is Tartu Welco to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
On our numbers Nõmme Kalju II have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Tartu Welco 73%.
How many goals will there be in Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
Our predicted score is Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 Tartu Welco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Hiiu Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
