Libertad vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Libertad take on Independiente del Valle on Monday 14 September, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 84 points. A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Libertad's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Flamengo 0–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 May 2026, finished Independiente del Valle 2–3 Libertad.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Libertad and 1.8 for Independiente del Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertad 24%, draw 20%, Independiente del Valle 56%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Independiente del Valle to win – a 56% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.78, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Libertad 0–1 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad24%fair 4.25 · @3.40
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.10
Independiente del Valle56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
2.81Expected goals
1.03Libertad xG
1.78Independiente del Valle xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.0 – 1.8 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle to win with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Libertad have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Independiente del Valle 56%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Libertad 0–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
Libertad vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
