Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad to win ✗46% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.26
Libertad vs Emelec preview and prediction
The match
Libertad host Emelec in the Liga Pro on Friday 4 September, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games, while Emelec sit 10th on 45 points.
Form guide
Libertad's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Aucas 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Emelec's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Leones del Norte 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Libertad arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Libertad and 1.0 for Emelec. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertad 46%, draw 22%, Emelec 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Libertad 1–0 Emelec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad46%fair 2.18 · @2.28
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Emelec32%fair 3.15 · @3.15
2.20Expected goals
1.24Libertad xG
0.96Emelec xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.2 – 1.0 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libertad to win✗
46%
2.18
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad / FT Libertad✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.26
–
Form
Libertad – last 6
LWDWWW
30 Aug
@ Aucas
0–1
L
25 Aug
vs Macara
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Guayaquil City FC
2–2
D
10 Aug
vs Universidad Catolica
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs Orense SC
3–0
W
27 Jul
@ Mushuc Runa SC
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Emelec – last 6
WLWDLL
31 Aug
vs Leones del Norte
2–1
W
24 Aug
@ LDU de Quito
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Tecnico Universitario
2–1
W
10 Aug
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
2 Aug
vs Aucas
0–2
L
28 Jul
@ Deportivo Cuenca
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Emelec.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Libertad vs Emelec?
On our numbers Libertad have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Emelec 32%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–0 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Emelec?
Libertad vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
