Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Emelec to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEmelec to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceEmelec or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.43
Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC preview and prediction
The match
Mushuc Runa SC travel to Estadio George Capwell in the Liga Pro on Friday 24 July (01:00 WAT) to face Emelec. Emelec are 10th with 45 points from 36 games, while Mushuc Runa SC sit 12th on 43 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Emelec's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Independiente del Valle 1–6 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mushuc Runa SC's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Orense SC 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Emelec arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 March 2026, finished Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Emelec.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Emelec and 0.7 for Mushuc Runa SC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Emelec 64%, draw 23%, Mushuc Runa SC 13%.
Safer route: Emelec or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Emelec to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Emelec or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Emelec 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Emelec64%fair 1.57 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.45
Mushuc Runa SC13%fair 7.69 · @4.40
2.43Expected goals
1.77Emelec xG
0.66Mushuc Runa SC xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Emelec 1.8 – 0.7 Mushuc Runa SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our pick is Emelec or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC?
On our numbers Emelec have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mushuc Runa SC 13%.
How many goals will there be in Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our predicted score is Emelec 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 24 July 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio George Capwell.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
