Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓71% · @1.36
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓90% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.10
Independiente del Valle vs Emelec preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Independiente del Valle take on Emelec on Monday 20 July, kicking off at 01:15 (WAT) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil. Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84 points from 35 games, while Emelec sit 10th on 45 points. A gap of 39 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Aucas 3–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Emelec's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Orense SC 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Emelec 2–0 Independiente del Valle.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.2 for Independiente del Valle and 0.6 for Emelec. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente del Valle 71%, draw 19%, Emelec 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 54% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Emelec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente del Valle71%fair 1.41 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.38 · @4.40
Emelec10%fair 9.64 · @9.30
2.78Expected goals
2.15Independiente del Valle xG
0.63Emelec xG
54%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–16%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.2 – 0.6 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Emelec 10%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?
Independiente del Valle vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Monday 20 July 2026 at 01:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
