Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Emelec to win @ 3.50 – our chance 38% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +32%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultOrense SC to win ✗38% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.32
Orense SC vs Emelec preview and prediction
The match
Orense SC host Emelec in the Liga Pro on Friday 17 July, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio 9 de Mayo. Orense SC are 13th with 39 points from 36 games, while Emelec sit 10th on 45 points.
Form guide
Orense SC's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Manta FC 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Emelec's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Barcelona SC 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Orense SC and 1.1 for Emelec. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Orense SC 38%, draw 24%, Emelec 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Emelec to win at 3.50 – 38% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Orense SC 1–1 Emelec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orense SC38%fair 2.64 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.15
Emelec38%fair 2.65 · @3.50
2.25Expected goals
1.13Orense SC xG
1.12Emelec xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Orense SC 1.1 – 1.1 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Orense SC to win✗
38%
2.64
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Orense SC / FT Orense SC✗
20%
4.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
13.32
–
Form
Orense SC – last 6
DLLLWW
11 Jul
@ Manta FC
0–0
D
7 Jul
vs Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
1 Jul
@ LDU de Quito
0–3
L
27 May
@ Cuniburo
1–2
L
19 May
@ Guayaquil City FC
1–0
W
9 May
vs Leones del Norte
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Emelec – last 6
DDWWDL
13 Jul
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ Delfin SC
1–1
D
1 Jun
vs Universidad Catolica
1–0
W
24 May
vs Macara
2–0
W
18 May
@ Manta FC
0–0
D
3 May
@ Leones del Norte
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orense SC and Emelec.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Orense SC vs Emelec?
On our numbers Orense SC have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Emelec 38%.
How many goals will there be in Orense SC vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orense SC vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Orense SC 1–1 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Orense SC vs Emelec?
Orense SC vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 9 de Mayo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
